Punto Banco

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Investors began 2026 expecting multiple rate cuts, which tend to juice capital markets and spur dealmaking activity. But on 28 February things changed quickly after joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran largely curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital Middle East waterway where some 20% of the world’s oil transited before the conflict began.

Several factors weighed heavily on the decision to raise rates. The average nationwide gas price now is $4.36 compared to $3.18 a year ago, per AAA, and the average diesel price of $6.31 is a record. Brent crude oil has crested over $100 per barrel compared to about $68 a year ago. Inflation was 3.4% in August, compared to 2.9% last year. And US 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries have reached their highest rates in decades.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh assumed the top role in May, and the central bank held rates steady for all of Warsh’s first three meetings. The decision to stand pat at the start of Warsh’s tenure came despite increasing calls for a hike as inflation remains solidly above the Fed’s 2% target. Those calls became too loud to ignore, prompting the first rate hike since August 2023.

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On Friday, a Department of Justice attorney told a federal judge that the Scotts Valley Band of Pomo Indians knew the Interior Department could reverse an earlier determination that its Vallejo land was eligible for gaming.

Despite those warnings, the tribe opened its “Preview Casino” on July 24, offering Class II gaming out of modular structures.

Six days later, Interior determined that the land did not qualify for gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA), forcing the tribe to shutter the operation and take the federal government back to court.

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FanDuel remains the leading US sportsbook, while Flutter’s international businesses provide additional sources of growth. But that quality comes with high expectations.

Beynon describes Flutter as “the highest-quality online betting franchise globally”, with FanDuel’s leadership position providing “significant long-term value”. The problem is that the market is increasingly questioning how much future earnings growth can be generated from that position as the industry matures.

DraftKings is a different proposition. Its share price went from $43.30 on 18 September 2025, to $21.75 upon market closure last week. Beynon says it “arguably offers the greatest operational upside if it can continue converting strong customer growth into sustained profitability”. Its prediction market strategy could also become an advantage if the new market proves complementary to sportsbook betting.