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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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Tech Race in Warsaw this September and Hall 7 at ICE in Barcelona this January are set to become sequential chapters of the same conversation. CTOs, CSOs and data leaders can expect to pick up where they left off four months later.

Both events are betting on the same idea proving useful for the industry. Getting a room full of exactly the right people together beats chasing them individually across the globe.

Is AI a pure buzzword? Tune in now to hear Dunn’s and Kastukevich’s honest views on AI in the iGaming industry.

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If it strikes a more reasonable balance that encourages economic development, “you will see the world’s best casino operators submit proposals”, he says. The government, he adds, must show it is prepared to give developers enough room to manage the risks of committing billions of dollars in capital.

Klebanow remains cautious about the commercial prospects of Japan’s emerging IR market, particularly given the tight limits on gaming capacity. With only five casinos ultimately envisaged, he argues that the number of gaming machines and tables will be modest relative to Japan’s population, making it “very safe to assume” that gambling will be socially and physically contained.

The bigger question, therefore, is whether such constraints will leave operators enough capacity to generate the returns needed to justify their investment.