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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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I won’t lie, when I first entered iGaming, I had my concerns. Aspects of the industry felt stuck in a state of stasis. People were making money, and as long as that continued to happen and margins were healthy, why innovate? Just keep doing the same things over and over, with marginal improvements when necessary.
As someone with a naturally curious mind, I found this frustrating. However, in a short period of time, I have seen positive changes. Recent regulatory shifts and an increasingly competitive landscape are pushing companies to innovate, and those unwilling to adapt are being left behind.
Not only has this made the industry a hotbed of innovation, but it’s also created an ideal environment for growth for those with cross-industry experience. Ideas from outside are now being welcomed, with companies finally embracing proven concepts from other sectors.
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Framing the acquisition as the latest step in the company’s online expansion, Merkur supervisory board Chairman Michael Gauselmann stated: “Having made early inroads into the online space in Europe via our Blueprint acquisition in 2012, I am delighted by this latest development and am confident that White Hat Studios will be a great addition to our group.”
In recent weeks, the gambling sector paid tribute to Paul Gauselmann after the Merkur Group founder passed away at the age of 91.
Kathryn covers bitesize breaking news with a primary focus on EMEA and US legislation. A proud North Walian, fluent Welsh speaker and lifelong Wrexham FC fan – long before Hollywood came calling.
