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“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

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For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.

Kesitilwe says the AiA also wants to develop a clearer picture of problem gambling across Africa and use that evidence to support engagement with governments and policymakers.

“We also, from the point of view of the Alliance, intend to do Africa-wide studies around prevalence of problem gambling in different markets, obviously working with regulators and associations,” he says.

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